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What happened to the recovery?
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve bank calculates both coincident and leading indexes for all states as well as the nation. The coincident index is a measure of the current state of the economy. The...
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Slow jobs growth in 2012
The chart above shows ADP Total Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (NPPTTL, black line) for the period January 2002 to November 2012, specifically the year on year percent change in growth. In 2012 we...
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Who is working?
Of course unemployment fell, the chart above shows the labour force participation rate (CIVPART, black line) from January 1st 1980 to November 1st 2012, measured monthly in percent. In terms of folks...
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Poor wage growth, poor recovery
The chart above shows Total Private Job Openings (JTS1000JOL, black line, measured monthly in thousands and seasonally adjusted) compared to Total Private Average Hourly Earnings (AHETPI, % change...
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Slow growth and low inflation
The chart above shows two series: first Real Potential GDP (GDPPOT, black line, measured quarterly) compared to Real Gross Domestic Product (GDPC1, blue line, measured quarterly) for the period 2003...
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Watch today’s durable goods
January durable goods orders surprised to the downside, with demand sharply down 5.2%, the first drop since August 2012 (when we saw a fall of 6.6%) and the most in three years. Most of this was...
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A rather anemic recovery
The amount of money a business entity has left after all costs have been paid – corporate profits after tax – indicates the overall health of the economy. As these profits grow then businesses are...
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Commodity wipeout or the recovery that wasn’t
Oh the forces of deflation are strong! What’s happening to commodity prices? In spite of claims about an economic recovery, we’re seeing a broad decline in commodity prices over the past three months....
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Manufacturing gains ZERO jobs in April
I’ve previously written about America’s mythical manufacturing revival so here is the latest installment off the back of Friday’s job numbers. How many jobs were created in the manufacturing sector in...
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Job openings and recession
The United States has what is called a consumer driven economy; in other words spending by consumers provides a significant component of GDP. In America’s case consumer spending accounts for over 70%...
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Memo to Bernanke – its not working!
Capital Goods Orders are carefully studied by market analysts since this metric provides critical information about the state of the manufacturing sector. The chart above shows Capital Goods Orders...
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A teetering economy
Lots of happy news about May’s increase in durable goods, with speculation about the impact on manufacturing. Durable goods orders is a key economic indicator as this metric leads future economic...
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Is the housing recovery over?
In spite of happy news regarding US housing, I have been pretty negative about the sector’s overall prospects and it now seems the markets are corroborating this view. The chart above shows three...
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Higher government spending leads to slower growth
ok so US Q3 GDP just revised down to 2.0% from the flash number of 2.1%,. We expect GDP to further disappoint into Q4 2015 and 2016. Why? The chart below shows the annual change in US real GDP (red...
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Depression era crisis in farming?
In spite of stereotypes about the scale and pervasiveness of factory farming, in The United States some 99% of all working farms are family farms, and most farms have annual incomes of less than $350K....
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Working to Live or Living to Work?
The US economy is starting to feel wage pressure, with American median incomes (finally) back to levels last seen before The Great Recession. So a happy end to 2016, eh? Not really. Even as incomes are...
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US recession looming?
In the wake of The Fed’s ill-advised rate hike , speculation is growing about a US recession in 2016. But is this probable? Yes. Parts of the US economy, for example, energy, are already in recession....
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No New Deal for America
Lots of excitement in The United States about upcoming elections. Many of the most enthusiastic are backing what might be called “outsider candidates” — Trump on the (far) right and Sanders on the...
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So The G20 Finance Ministers are having a meeting …
In Shanghai no less, epicenter of recent market volatility. Apparently on their agenda is a discussion that will allow these nations to agree a way forward to improve global growth. The IMF is urging...
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A tale of two Christmas’
The 2016 Christmas run up saw the shares of retailers ( tracked by XRT, first chart ) rise an anaemic 1%, while in 2017 the same stocks BOOMED, soaring some 5.17 during the last two weeks of December....
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